How well do you think retailers will do today? Black Friday 2009

[Beth n Rod 1,279]

It is often said that Black Friday is a gauge for our economy. How well do you think retailers will do today and this Holiday season? Will struggling retailers survive or will we see more store closings?

Post your .02....

Beth

[plainpainter 217]

This is just anecdotal on my part and extremely regional. But I see a definite upswing with retailers this year. Heck remember when stores like Talbots were going out of business for good? They're still hanging in. In my downtown which was looking like a ghost town a year ago, has seen a good influx of new stores coming in - I see no indication of stores closing up shop like a year ago. Heck one store that had been in business for a century closed up last year for good. Starbucks is packed. All the shops that closed have new shops going in.

I vote at least in my neck of the woods that retailers will do much better this year.

[Beth n Rod 1,279]

washingtonpost.com

An article in the WP today....

Beth

[plainpainter 217]

I think the retailers are smart this year, they've curbed inventory to keep demand levels high this year. Hot items are selling and customers notice the shelves aren't keeping stocked as fast.

As well, a local nightly magazine show does a spot once a week on restaurants - there has been a quazillion restaurants opening in and around Boston this past year. Every restaurant I walk into from the luncheonette on up is always packed. The fundamentals for this economy will remain on the blink for years - and it remains to be seen if the O'bama administration truly makes the fundamental changes needed to our financial markets to prevent this from ever happening again. But saying all that - if you guage our 'economy' on folks going and spending again, housing markets improving, etc - then I see a continual and lasting improvement.

I also believe that there will be enough improvement especially for household incomes of 70k and greater, e.g. their homes are worth more than they owe, stock market back up, etc. That service companies like us will see a great year - despite a bad unemployment. I will even go to say that if home values improve and the stock market goes back up and life is honky dory for the 70k and higher crowd - that news of high unemployment will fall on deaf ears.

Remember the top 10% of 'wealth' in this country is responsible for 50% of all the spending that goes on. Spending is 70% of our GDP. If you include all households with incomes of 70k and greater - that's the top 30% of household incomes in this country. If the economy turns around for the top 30% of folks - unemployment figures will no longer matter - and business will be back to normal.

[Doug Dahlke 114]

I think spending may be a little bit more than last year but nothing great. People will be using cash and not plastic and going with less expensive and maybe more practical gifts. I know several people that are making donations to charities and not buying gifts at all. It will be interesting to hear the news reports tonight.