Beth n Rod

Housing downturn affects another layer of valley economy By JEFF JARDINE The beating taken by the mortgage and real estate industry isn't limited to defaulting homeowners, lenders and starving real estate agents.The news focuses on how the valley leads the nation in foreclosure rates, but the trickledown effect has hit related businesses, industries and people as well. It spread to the building services industry, where United Rentals has laid off 16 people in the past two months, Modesto stores manager Jim Nechwedowich said. "The trickledown is always bigger than anything else," he said. "It's the guys who put in sprinkler systems, the driveway, the plumbers, the elec- tricians, the stucco guy." And, of course, the folks who rent tools and equipment to those subcontractors. "I've been in management a long time, and I've had to fire people," he said. "It's never bothered me because when you fire someone, it's because they've done something wrong. But this is the first time I've ever laid people off. It's not fun. It's not that they've done anything wrong. You just can't afford to keep them." The pain has spread to another layer as well, as Albert and Nicole Ell of Modesto have experienced -- along with the 20 employees they've had to lay off from their cleaning services since summer. The Ells opened A&N Cleaning Service in 2002, and it grew rapidly. They worked with contractors to do the final cleaning of new homes as the buyers prepared to move in. They worked jobs from Modesto to Visalia. The janitorial service portion of their business counts mortgage, construction and real estate offices as clients. Three times in the past month, his crews have arrived at clients' businesses only to find they have closed -- no warning, no courtesy call -- stiffing him for more than $100,000 in income over the life of the contracts. "We did Golden State (Real Estate & Mortgage)," Ell said. "We walked in and there was nothing there. To this day, they still owe us money." A call to the mortgage company revealed that its number had been disconnected. It's a dramatic and frustrating turnaround from the boom times on which they built their business. "Lots of clients aren't staying in business," he said. "We're barely hanging on ourselves. Last year, our phones were ringing off the hook for estimates." Other businesses have cut back janitorial services from five days a week to three or two. And contractors who once called regularly as blocks of houses were completed -- sold or unsold -- have stopped calling, period, as sales have slowed dramatically. "Now they call us only when they're going to sell a (single) house," he said. The slowdown has been more like a meltdown. "We had 31 (full-time) employees," said Ell, whose payroll had surpassed $30,000 a month. "We're now down to 11. We had to let four go last week. It was very heartbreaking." The business was nearing the point where the Ells hoped to soon begin shopping for health plans that would provide at least some level of coverage for the employees, Ell said. Now, benefits are out of the question. Albert, who manages the bookings while Nicole handles the finances and payroll, is back to doing some of the cleaning. "I'd met him a couple of times," said Modesto attorney David Rockwell, whose law firm uses the Ells' service. "Once, when he was here supervising his employees; I talked to him once at the health club; and then (Dec. 19), when he was here sweeping the floors himself. Sometimes we focus on loss of needed government services, but this is one of the ripple effects on everyday people and small businesses that more people should know about. "We don't think about all of the other things associated with (the housing bust) until you talk to someone like that." Ell said his residential clientele has declined as well. "People who are losing their jobs can't afford a cleaning service," he said. When will the bleeding stop? United Rentals' Nechwedowich believes his company, which has worked with local contractors who are still building commercially, will see things start to level off, if not improve, by the summer. "I think our outlook is good in 2008," he said. Ell, meanwhile, is taking a giant step backward as he begins his recovery. "I'm going back to marketing next month," he said. "I'll start hitting the pavement again, trying to rebuild my business." He knows it could be a while before he can say with some confidence that his business is truly cleaning up. Jeff Jardine's column appears Sundays, Tuesdays and Thursdays in Local News. He can be reached at jjardine@modbee.com or 578-2383. The Modesto Bee | Trickledown Pain

There are some who believe it is best to do it annually. The recommendation comes from the basis of doing a great deal of flatwork or work where your hoses are drawn over rough surfaces frequently. For those who do residential work, there may not be as much wear and tear due to the softer surfaces such as grass and loose dirt comparatively and should be replaced every 24-36 months of use. Seasonal businesses have a better duration due to several months of idle time so actual time is considered. Myself, our hoses last about 2 years before having a hose burst and requiring repairs...but get this, I had one burst after only 6 weeks. So, quality is another factor to consider as well. 1 wire vs 2 wire I don't think is as relevant in scheduling replacement vs the hose jacket wear and the particulars in using hot water is concerned. I find that frequent hot water use and temps above 150* shorten a hoses life by about 20%. I have come to this determination by comparing the life of my cold water unit hoses vs the hot water unit hoses. My theory is that while hot water is running through the hose, it softens the hose jacket making it more susceptible to damage from abrasion, kinking damage which affects the inner sections including the wire braiding leading to hose failure and puncture from sharp objects. I am aware others observations may not completely agree with mine but for the basis of answering your question on planning when to replace hoses, these factors should be kept in mind. Average hoselife = 1-2 years of regular use using cold water and residential settings. 8 to 18 months in commercial applications and that is considering as well the use of hot water. Apply this to your wash profile and see where it puts you. Rod!~ ps, Ron has a cool idea of video replying. It could very well be the next generation of bbs's. Some may also call it video blogging or whatever but, I think it adds a missing component to communications that is not available through text alone.

What do you mean refusing to assimilate? (I hope I am not sorry I asked) Beth

Why is it, that so many people refer to anyone of Hispanic origin as a Mexican? There are many many Hispanic countries with large populations. Beth

Bryan, You going to Rich's shindig? Beth

CensusScope -- Demographic Maps: Hispanic Population HACU - Data, Statistics, and Research http://www.tia.org/uploads/casestudies/Hispanic%20White%20Paper.pdf Beth

Does anyone know who buys the most phone cards or disposable phones? Has anyone noticed that signs have popped up in various stores and other places of business such as banks, in Spanish as well as English? Did anyone see the program Home Depot (as I recall) rolled out where you can by a HD card with X dollars on it, and send it to someone to use in another country? You can send money home, but keep it in your store. What is happening with the immigration issue in the US will effect us in many, many ways. Beth

Lithium grease The little squeeze tube size. Rod!~

I am not sure why it is not working on this one....try another one. Beth

Ron, if you look at the URL for a youtube video, you will see a series of letters and numbers after the = sign in the string. Place that group (NOT the whole URL) in between the tags for youtube. You'll be good to go. Beth

Never saw that hit the news. Got a link? Beth

Thanks Ken! :) Great read! Beth

The Norovirus is nasty stuff. YUCK. Beth

HA! The cookie monster in him is alive and well. Don't believe it... But, he has been more health conscious... Getting in shape and staying in shape is a great resolution. So is getting and staying organized and focused. :dancing: Beth

Bump! Ok, here's my results for the 2007 resolutions: I did well on my resolution to keep the weight off and stay fit... I exercise daily and have shaped up my midsection but still don't have the six pack I am looking for (getting old sucks!). ...didn't quite control the cookie monster but I managed to get him to relent once or twice. :taz: How did you do? Rod!~

:) Very nice results. :) Beth

What, the Kevlar or what it is made into? My guess, a vest. Rod!~

I am no expert in this question but a great deal can be found on the net to answer this type of question. How Much Is My Business Worth - A Primer on Business Valuation - Entrepreneurial Resources - Tips for Entrepreneurs - Gaebler Ventures - Chicago, Illinois Business Valuations: What Is Your Business Worth? Herold-Lambert Group Business Valuation: Three Approaches to Measuring Business Worth - ValuAdder These are based mostly on American financial dictum's so I do not know how much will translate effectively in Australian business markets or financial practices. Hopefully it helps none the less. Rod!~

What new movies have you seen that you would recommend? Rod!~

Pursuit of Happiness was odd... I liked it, but once was enough. Also saw the Borne Ultimatum - liked it Die hard (latest one) - liked it Beth

It will drive labor rates through the roof. Beth

You guys do realize what this will do to the service industries right? Beth

Here is your worst nightmare... [yt]7BtNN6M97q8&NR=1[/yt] Rod!~

Looks like a screen or something....but I have to ask the same thing Kevin did....what is it? Beth

Red tinted paints have easily oxidizable components and could be affected by chlorine. I agree with Beth, do a test spot first. Also, Hardi-plank is not molded in color but is painted at the manufacturing facility before shipping. Take care not to use temps above 150* when washing as it can cause the paint to bubble and peel. Rod!~