Woody Weather

[RPetry 564]

Just googling around, trying to find a long range weather forecast for temperatures. Getting itchy to flush the equipment of antifreeze, do some servicing, and project out this springs work schedule.

Anyway, came upon this site...Long-range Weather

Claims to be somewhat accurate, projecting out days with precipitation. Boy would this be invaluable if it was as it claims but I have my doubts.

Here is another link that may be more credible. Climate Prediction Center - Forecasts & Outlook Maps, Graphs and Tables

[Beth n Rod 1,279]

You're itching to get out on a deck aren't you... :)

Beth

[Deck Guy 14]

I have watched forecasts for years in my regular job, along with quite a bit of meteorlogical training.

Mother nature is fickle. A front can easily slide sixty miles one way or another, which means the forecast was actually pretty accurate, except if you're within that sixty miles. Checking those sites, it would appear that they rely on historical averages. It seems that this would be a reasonable way to guage expected averages, but I would doubt that method to predict the likelyhood of specific activity on a specific day. It's not entirely random though, since there are seasonal slants. But in one sense, that method of forecasting is like roulette...if red has hit three times in a row, that doesn't change the percentage that red will hit on the next spin. The odds will still be 50/50, since the wheel doesn't know or care what the last spin was.

Personally, I don't trust any forecast more that 24 hours out, and even then I take it with a grain of salt.

[plainpainter 217]

Rick - if you knew anything about the mathematics and computer modelling involved for weather prediction - you would know that prediction is futile. It amazes me that those nightly news weather guys still go back and try and try over and over again - if they could accurately predict just 48 hours, I would be extremely happy.