2009 Economy Poll

[Beth n Rod 1,279]

Ok folks, last year we put this poll up and people thought we were all doom and gloom. We weren't. So a year later, our Nations banks are failing, the auto industry is in the hopper, and many retail chains are closing stores. Inflation and unemployment are up. So....2009...what are your thoughts about how it looks for our industry, and how can we all face this and survive when many around us are selling out....

Please post in the thread and don't forget to vote.

Beth

[plainpainter 217]

2008 definitely affected my business this year - perhaps some escaped - but I doubt 2009 will be a banner year for anyone. Just because an economy is bad - doesn't mean everyone feels the effects equally or even immediately - but everyone is going definitely feel it next year. You can skip out on a yearly house wash if you're having money troubles.

[jetstream1 18]

I have a few things working for 09 but this month has been slow

[plainpainter 217]

My prediction for '09. 2009 is going to be the year when contractors either learn to sell their services for high rates at high closing ratios - or they will go bust.

[PressurePros 249]

One thing I have learned with both an education in economics and 20 years of owning businesses.. Nobody is truly smart enough to predict the economy with any accuracy. I was just on a blog that predicted that there was no way gas prices would fall below $3.85. On that blog are ten+ replies agreeing with the author. $1.69 here in Philly Metro. For every person that foretold of disaster, there was another MBA or Phd saying the opposite. Not many predicted the deflationary cycle we are going through. Some saw the housing crises happening while the experts in our government let it occur. I doubt anyone can say they "saw it coming" with anymore pride than having a lucky guess. The same can be said for how long this will last or how bad it will get. The reality is.. here we are. I still say commercial washers are going to feel it hardest.

Malls are falling into disrepair.

Large retailers are running for the shelter of bankruptcy. People are spending less and less money while retailers drop their margins to get a larger piece of the shrinking pie.

The commercial real estate market is now also in crisis.

Anchor stores in shopping centers aren't paying rent.

Restaurant chains are filing bankruptcy.

Gas stations gross sales are going to be way down from falling prices.

Property managers are going to be tightening belts. Homeowners are going to start foregoing maintenance. I still won't put the doom and gloom spin. Its just time for all good business owners to be proactive. Make sure all your eggs are not in one basket.

[plainpainter 217]

Make sure all your eggs are not in one basket.

Care to elaborate on all the possible 'basket's out there? Well - looks like I will be getting a HIC license. I know folks still need roofs done even during slow times. God I hate roofing....

[Beth n Rod 1,279]

One thing I have learned with both an education in economics and 20 years of owning businesses.. Nobody is truly smart enough to predict the economy with any accuracy. I was just on a blog that predicted that there was no way gas prices would fall below $3.85. On that blog are ten+ replies agreeing with the author. $1.69 here in Philly Metro. For every person that foretold of disaster, there was another MBA or Phd saying the opposite. Not many predicted the deflationary cycle we are going through. Some saw the housing crises happening while the experts in our government let it occur. I doubt anyone can say they "saw it coming" with anymore pride than having a lucky guess. The same can be said for how long this will last or how bad it will get. The reality is.. here we are. I still say commercial washers are going to feel it hardest.

Malls are falling into disrepair.

Large retailers are running for the shelter of bankruptcy. People are spending less and less money while retailers drop their margins to get a larger piece of the shrinking pie.

The commercial real estate market is now also in crisis.

Anchor stores in shopping centers aren't paying rent.

Restaurant chains are filing bankruptcy.

Gas stations gross sales are going to be way down from falling prices.

Property managers are going to be tightening belts. Homeowners are going to start foregoing maintenance. I still won't put the doom and gloom spin. Its just time for all good business owners to be proactive. Make sure all your eggs are not in one basket.

I didn't think gas would drop this low again (boy don't we all feel a little...taken....) but the rest of the picture, I have to say seemed pretty clear. Not a lucky guess. An observation that made sense to me.

It's far from over. I agree. And Ken I have to say, I don't think I have ever heard you this ...negative or skeptical on the economy before.

In any case, it pretty much stinks....

Beth

Edited December 17, 2008 by Beth n Rod
spelling

[plainpainter 217]

I think this recession is like a cold front coming out of Canada heading south. Seems to me the most northern guys are the first to notice/observe/complain. Jarrod was like the first to bring it up until he got booed of these forums. Just the other day a friend of mine described a $4000 Interior paint job being done for $1,700 by immigrant crews - and the house wife shopped a bunch of painters to death. The husband is a surgeon - and I got the inside scoop from a pharmacist that knows where to look for salary info - the husband makes a 4 million yearly salary! Even the rich folks are shopping for the ultra lowest price now. My friend upon noticing that it wasn't exactly the nicest highest end paint job - the wife exclaimed, I know it isn't great - but I got exactly my money's worth!

We're living in scary times. BTW - it took a crew of 3 guys 4 days to do that job! That's about $17.70/hr including materials - give that some thought!

[James 625]

I was talking to a guy at the gym to day and his Biz is Booming!! Stress Related Heart Attacks and Deaths are up ! People can not afford there Health Care cost or Medications? So this Funeral Home owner is doing quite well!

[plainpainter 217]

Jim - you think there is business in pressure washing blood off highways? LOL

[James 625]

Instead of throwing shoes at our Politicians ? Hand them a Boot for your disapproval . This will mark the event and signal he or she is getting the BOOT !!!! BYE BYE..... DODD MR Banking Commish !

[plainpainter 217]

I hate myself for actually giving this some thought...

Crime Scene Cleanup Suicide Accident Trauma Scene Cleaning Services

[James 625]

Dan, Crime Scene clean up is a BIz ! Good money in Suicide and Gruesome death Clean up!

[PressurePros 249]

Care to elaborate on all the possible 'basket's out there? Well - looks like I will be getting a HIC license. I know folks still need roofs done even during slow times. God I hate roofing....

Dan, I can only speak for myself. I have multiple business holdings, bought my first piece of real estate in Oct and of course have a strong position in the DIY market. RAD is going to be my focus over the winter. I have a feeling DIY is going to be booming in '09.

[PressurePros 249]

I hate myself for actually giving this some thought...

Crime Scene Cleanup Suicide Accident Trauma Scene Cleaning Services

Dan, you'll "hate" that . ;-)

[plainpainter 217]

I have a feeling DIY is going to be booming in '09.

You're probably right! I myself have no way of making money off that trend - I am a service provider - total 180 opposite from DIY. I actually just invented a real time saver for interior painting - such a stupidly simple thing that I am prototyping right, initial result are really good, the idea came out of the blue a few months ago when I was frustrated with interior production rates and the 'going' rate for interior jobs. Know a patent lawyer - LOL.

[PressurePros 249]

You're probably right! I myself have no way of making money off that trend - I am a service provider - total 180 opposite from DIY. I actually just invented a real time saver for interior painting - such a stupidly simple thing that I am prototyping right, initial result are really good, the idea came out of the blue a few months ago when I was frustrated with interior production rates and the 'going' rate for interior jobs. Know a patent lawyer - LOL.

no, but I know a guy that is okay at marketing with a high ranking website ;)

[plainpainter 217]

no, but I know a guy that is okay at marketing with a high ranking website ;)

Oh - my god I never thought of that!!!!!! Your site would be a perfect place to market and sell a DIY'er painting tool. This tool is awesome - I love it myself. There have been many attempts out there to come up with a decent cutting tool - but they have all been 'over' thought. This is so simple it actually works!

[John Orr 206]

'09 is going to be an "interesting" year. As it is now, the year-to-year turnover rate of contractors is extremely high. It will go higher. This could actually work to the advantage of an established, reasonably priced contractor. I am actually hoping to hire an assistant for the first time.

[plainpainter 217]

'09 is going to be an "interesting" year. As it is now, the year-to-year turnover rate of contractors is extremely high. It will go higher. This could actually work to the advantage of an established, reasonably priced contractor. I am actually hoping to hire an assistant for the first time.

Why couldn't you hire one before?

[Beth n Rod 1,279]

It's about time!!!

Federal Reserve Board to vote on credit-card rules - Dec. 16, 2008

Beth :cup:

[RPetry 564]

Prediction is difficult. This past winter, 2008's wood season looked bad. Our pre-bookings were down significantly, and less requests for estimates. By the early April, our book was out 6 weeks. Never had a slow period, even late August, and worked straight into the first few days of November.

One interesting change was the number of new customers fixing up their properties prior to putting them on the market. This may be a marketing niche worth pursuing in 2009.

[John Orr 206]

Why couldn't you hire one before?

Aside from not being able to find anyone as picky as me for house washing, I was working 12 - 14 hours, 7 days a week from March - July. Almost 30% increase. (I do 99% residential.)

I've been washing professionally since '99 and I have several additional services that I would like to offer my extensive customer list. If there is an economy in '09, people will not want to take chances on unknown contractors. I expect Service Magic and Angie's List request to go up.

On top of all that, I have been going through health issues due to a car accident earlier this year (not my fault) that has resulted in 2 (so far) operations. I need a second pair of hands to assist me, but would like to rain them for some of these other services I have been looking for a way to add. (Rust removal/system installation/maintenance and curb address painting.)

[plainpainter 217]

Aside from not being able to find anyone as picky as me for house washing, I was working 12 - 14 hours, 7 days a week from March - July. Almost 30% increase. (I do 99% residential.)

What's there to be picky about in house washing??? John you have to learn to loosen up.

[John Orr 206]

What's there to be picky about in house washing??? John you have to learn to loosen up.

Can't argue that point! As far as what there is to be picky about, knowing that is what keeps me - and (hopefully) all of us - in business.